Australian Republic Constitution
Australian Flag News Get Involved! Events Resources
Main Menu
ACM Home
About ACM
ACM News
Anthems
Afghan Court Martial
Book Reviews
The Commonwealth
Contact ACM
Convenor's Column
Constitutional Monarchies and Republics Compared
Constitutional Monarchy in the Muslim World
Cost of Republicanism to the Taxpayer
Crowned Republic
Diamond Jubilee 2012
Event News
Federalism and the Mining Tax
Fiji
Flag: Keep The Flag
Governor of New South Wales
Head of State
Keating-Turnbull Republic: The Nineties
Knights & Dames
Latest News and Opinions
Links
Mate for a Head of State
Media and monarchy
Nile Inquiry
Opinion Polling
Orthodoxy and Monarchy
People's Republic?
Plebiscites
Prince Andrew
Prince Charles
Prince Harry
Prince Philip
Prince William & Catherine
Prince William In Australia
Prince William: The Early Years
Racist Republic?
Reserve Powers of the Crown
Resources
Return the Governor
Royal Commissions
Royal Finances
Self Funded Monarchy
Royal Yacht Britannia
The Succession
2020 Summit
Join our Mailing List
See our selection of videos from across the world:-
ACM Videos
AussieCrownTV - ACM's own TV channel:
Aussie Crown TV
Follow ACM on Facebook:
Facebook
Self Funded Monarchy
Self Funded Monarchy
Royal Finances
Royal Finances
Diamond Jubilee 2012
Diamond Jubilee 2012
Head of State
Prince Philip
Prince Philip
Special Caribbean Report: Crown & Commonwealth

      Crown

The Commonwealth
The Commonwealth
Prince Harry
Prince Harry
Prince Andrew
Prince Andrew
Knights & Dames
Knights & Dames
The King's Speech: read the book, see the film.

The King's Speech

Watch the 2010 Neville Bonner Oration: Tony Abbott.
Tony Abbott
Nile Inquiry
Royal Commissions
Royal Commissions
Opinion Polls

 

Plebiscites
Plebiscites
2020 Summit
2020 Summit
Orthodoxy & Monarchy
Orthodoxy & Monarchy
Afghan Court Martial
Constitutional Monarchy in the Muslim World
Constitutional Monarchy in the Muslim World
Mate for a Head of State
Mate for a Head of State
Racist Republic?
Racist Republic
A People's Republic?
A People's republic?
Keating Turnbull Republic: The Nineties
The Keating Turnbull Republic
Crowned Republic
Crowned Republic
Polls
Republicans' Best Asset?
Is David Flint ( National Convenor since 1998) the republicans best asset, as some claim?
ACM Home arrow Opinion Polling arrow Not inevitable and never was

Not inevitable and never was Print E-mail
Written by Professor David Flint AM   
Wednesday, 18 June 2014

Glance at the red line in the graph below and rejoice. Support for a republic among the young has well and truly collapsed.

Although the ARM hasn't, the media may at last have woken up to something we have been pointing out here for years.

This is that the strongest support for a  politicians' republic has been almost always among the middle aged, and not the young. The red line shows that.

Interest among our youth  has been falling significantly over an extended period of time, and from well before the young royals came on to the scene as personalities in their own right.

 

Image   

 


 

...referendum campaign...

 

 

 In the 90s, as we campaigned against the attempt to impose some form of  politicians' republic on the nation, the various pollsters began to pay increasing attention to the issue. But most in the media and curiously, in the Australian Republican Movement, missed or glossed over the data about youth support.

Was it because they wanted  to believe that our youth were dreaming about the advent of a politicians' republic ?

When the official Vote Yes and Vote No Referendum Committees were appointed, the Vote No Committee  undertook its own polling. (It was chaired by ACM's executive director, Kerry Jones, and all members but two independent republicans were from ACM.)

One  thing  caught my eye in both the public and the No Committee polls whenever the ages of the respondents were shown.

 

...republicans in denial...




 

 As you would expect the older voters were the most opposed.

Bu tit was not the young who were the most republican. It was the middle-aged (and especially males in inner city electorates) .

The ARM still hasn't caught up with this crucial  fact.

Recently in a debate broadcast on Wednesday, 26 March 2014 ( podcast 260314) on Neil Mitchell's program on Melbourne's highest rating talkback station 3AW, ACM's  Jai Martinkovits said that support for a politicians' republic among the young was low and that this was a time bomb for the republicans.

The  current leader of the republican movement, David Morris, replied by saying:"Young people are the most republican and Jai knows that every poll in the last 30 years has shown that." 




....welcome development....

 

Image

The ARM has apparently also not noticed that in the last year or so, there has been a further, and to us, welcome development.

 The young have now replaced the elderly as the least republican age group. The details are on our site in the section on opinion polling.

The above table was prepared from various Fairfax Nielsen polls by Mallory Brangan for the Fairfax newspapers The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age both of which are now very republican. So it is to their credit that they actually published this.

Although this graph is only based on one pollster – Fairfax Nielsen –  there is a broad similarity on this issue between most of the polls, Morgan, Newspoll and now Essential.



 ...flush with funds...  




The sole exception to the similar findings among pollsters is  UMR, which has been commissioned by the  ARM to undertake various polls. (On one occasion the poll was released to a gullible media without even revealing the question.)


It seems, incidentally, that the ARM is as flush with funds as when Malcolm Turnbull was its major and generous benefactor. UMR usually records a higher level of republican support than most other pollsters. Even then, its latest polling offers little solace for the republicans.

The graph shows that around the referendum, youth support for a republic fell below  general support by up to seven points.
 
After the referendum youth support rose slightly above the general level but from 2003  fell at a greater rate than for the total population.  There is now a 16 point difference between them.  Youth support for a politicians' republic  is now estimated by Nielson ro about 27%. General support is estimated to be to 43%.

In a referendum on a specific model this would probably fall by around 10 points. That's why a referendum  or even a blank cheque plebiscite is most unlikely.  




.. youth  support collapsing..



Youth support has been falling more sharply than general support. It has  heading in one direction since soon after the referendum – down.

This is a disaster for republicans. No wonder the ARM and its leader David Morris is in denial.

Some years ago the passionate republican MP and former Attorney General  Nicola Roxon famously said: "No new monarchists are being born.''

And former Senator Susan Ryan rather cruelly quipped soon after the referendum that the republicans only had to wait until my generation of monarchists "fall off the perch."

So much for their inevitable politicians' republic.

 
< Prev   Next >
ROYAL VISIT 2014

Image

The Book Depository
Image
Image
Prince William: The Early Years
Prince Charles

Prince Charles

Constitutional Monarchies & Republics Compared

Image


Defend the Constitution and Flag
Australian Election Watch

10th Anniversary Neville Bonner Oration

11th Anniversary and Appeal

Crowned Republic 

   Keep The Australian Flag
Return the Governor to Government House
The Succession
The Succession
The Governor of New South Wales
Governor of New South Wales
Fiji
Fijian soldier
Media and Monarchy
Media and Monarchy
Royal Yacht Britannia
Royal Yacht Britannia
Republic Audit: Costs of Republic
Republic Audit: Costs of Republic
Reserve Powers of the Crown
Events
October 2017 November 2017 December 2017
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
Week 44 1 2 3 4
Week 45 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Week 46 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Week 47 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Week 48 26 27 28 29 30