|Another disappointing poll for republicans.|
|Written by Professor David Flint AM|
|Tuesday, 12 June 2012|
In its online survey of 12 June 2012, Essential Research asks two questions. The first is “Are you in favour or against Australia becoming a republic?”
Although differing from the Morgan poll, the result will be very disappointing for republicans in relation to the overall vote, the youth vote, and the significant number according no opinion.
So if a referendum were held now on any Republican model it is likely that the yes vote would, as a percentage, be in the low 30s or even in the 20s.
The poll reveals that among the age groups, the middle-aged are more strongly republican than the young. This is consistent with most other polls.
A large number of respondents, 27%, register no opinion. This rises to 36% among the young. On past experience, most of these will vote no in a referendum. A dismal result for republicans.
The second question asked was is “Do you think that Australia is likely or unlikely to ever become a republic?A clear majority, 52%, think it likely. But when this is broken down only 12% think this very likely.The younger voters are more realistic, being almost equally divided on this.
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