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ACM Home arrow Opinion Polling arrow Major polling survey - republic unachievable

Major polling survey - republic unachievable Print E-mail
Written by ACM   
Sunday, 09 October 2011

If a referendum were held today, predicts Morgan polling, Australia would remain a constitutional monarchy - and by a clear margin. Further, they conclude that Australia becoming a (politicians’) republic is unachievable.

In the meantime support for the constitutional monarchy is trending upwards.


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A high-powered team from Roy Morgan Research was speaking to a paper delivered to the annual national conference Australians for Constitutional Monarchy, "Australia's Constitutional Future: Opinion Polling".

The conference held in Melbourne on 8 and 9 October, 2011 was ACM’s 12th national conference since the 1999 referendum. The team was led by Chairman Gary Morgan with CEO Michelle Levine and Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

In introducing the
team, ACM National convener Professor David Flint recalled that Roy Morgan Research, founded in 1941, was the nation’s  longest established market research and public opinion polling company, with a strong international presence.



...strong support trending up for monarchy, down for republic....


 

In the first long-term survey of polling trends on this issue, the paper found that at the time of the 1999 referendum “a majority of Australians (54%) did profess to support a republic in preference to the monarchy brackets 38%); however divisions on what type of republic made a majority of Australians preferred to stay with a working system of government rather than vote for an uncertain and ill-defined republican model. “

But Morgan polling has found that support for the monarchy is now 55% (up 17% since 1999) compared with support for a republic (34%, down 20%).
This is the lowest support for a republic since the bicentennial in 1988 ( 29%)

From data produced by Morgan polling, it is clear that the trend lines indicate increasing support for the constitutional monarchy, and declining support for a republic. 



 ... young and immigrants... 


There are two aspects of the latest polling which will strike fear into the hearts of the republicans.

First, support for a republic is lower among the 14 to 17 age group (31%) than among electors (35%).

Second, support for a republic is evn lower among non-electors (28%) than among electors (35%) (Non-electors include immigrants who are not yet citizens.) 

These two significant findings confirm that  republicans are making a mistake in assuming that the votes of the young and new immigrants will be in favour of whatever form of politicians' republic they eventually agree on .

Morgan Polling is pessimistic about such an agreement being reached: "If the republican movement ever wants a republic to be taken seriously, they must change their agenda – which seems impossible."



....prediction...





"If the republican movement ever wants a republic to be taken seriously, they must change their agenda which seems impossible," predicts Gary Morgan. "Otherwise, there is a better chance that in 40 years Canberra will be closed rather than there being a president at Yarralumla.”


Obviously the politicians polling and focus groups have come to similar conclusions. Little wonder that they have decided that the issue should not be raised during the current reign. 

As we have long argued here, assuming that Australia will suddenly become a politicians' republic at the beginning of the next reign indicates that Australia's republicans are still desperately looking for a silver bullet which will result in some sort of republic falling into their laps. 

I
t just won't happen that way.

(The paper by Morgan Polling may be seen here.) 

 
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