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ACM Home arrow Opinion Polling arrow Opinion polling: trend down

Opinion polling: trend down Print E-mail
Written by Professor David Flint AM   
Wednesday, 09 March 2011
ACM takes no position on the theory of anthropogenic global warming, and of measures to counter it, but a recent poll is of interest concerning changes in public attitudes.

 Since Prime Minister Gillard announced her intention to introduce a carbon tax from July 2012, overall positive public support for action on global warming, even if it means rising prices for electricity and petrol, has turned negative, according to the Newspoll published in The Australian on 8 March 2011.

Image


A majority of people, or 53 per cent, are now against such action with 42 per cent in favour. According to the question, this is even if it would help slow global warming. The sexes are almost equally opposed. Those over 50 are strongly opposed at 60:35%, with both young and middle aged registering 49% in opposition and 45% and 46% in favour respectively.

The campaign in favour both of the theory of anthropogenic global warming and the proposition that Australia should take counter measures which would impose costs is strongly supported by the mainstream media and the politicians.

If this poll establishes a trend – it is after all only one poll – the campaign may be losing its attraction among the general public.



...polling on a republic...   




I stress again that ACM takes no position on these questions. But the apparent turn in the polls has parallels with those on some vague undefined politicians’ republic where there was also very strong support in the mainstream media and among the politicians.

There was a slight majority of support in the nineties for some vague undefined politicians’ republic. For the informed this indicated that a referendum wouldbe defeated.

But since then, the trend has been very much down to the low 40% range. Moreover there is one constant in the polling. That is support, indeed interest  among the young is weak.

In addition when one poll was taken on the model which is assumed to be the most popular – where the people elect the president – support was almost as low as that for a vague undefined politicians’ republic.




...rogue poll...





This did not preclude the republican movement relying on a rogue poll conveniently released for the 10th anniversary which claimed an impossible 59% support for some vague undefined politicians’ republic.

A rogue poll is one which goes against the trend. Its accuracy should be immediately suspect although it can of course indicate a change in opinion. This will be clarified by susbsequent polls. Needless to say, in the interim, the rogue poll should be treated with caution.


The republican movement refers only to this one rogue poll to support its argument that Australians want such a republic. 

This is obviously untrue and it does little for the credibility of the republican movement.

 

[The image above relates to a piece  in First Post on 17 February, 2009]    

 

 
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