|Plebiscite doomed too|
|Written by Professor David Flint AM|
|Sunday, 24 January 2010|
‘Republic support slides in new poll’, declared the Sunday Telegraph and the Sunday Mail (24/1). This Galaxy poll found a low 44% are in favour of “Australia becoming a republic.”
A poll taken by UMR for the tenth anniversary of the failed 1999 referendum for a politicians’ republic produced an unbelievable level of support for a vague unspecified politicians’ republic, 59%. This was clearly an aberration, yet the republican movement used it in media releases as if it were accurate. The reliability of the poll was discussed on this site on 7 November, 2009 ( “Signs of desperation: broken hearts and improbable poll”)
That is why I told the newspapers that to have only 44% of people in favour of some sort of republic tells us what the republican politicians already know –there won’t be a referendum during the reign of the present Queen. No matter how many editorials appear in The Sydney Morning Herald or The Age, the politicans are unlikely to put their necks on the block in a drubbing in a referndum or plebiscite. Given the obsession of many in the media, they could not hide this by holding it during an election.
This Galaxy poll for News Limited indicates that not only a referendum would fail. So would a plebiscite. The trend line is going down and from a low base.
The other thing to notice is that those who indicate they are uncommitted are likely to vote no. This may be that they do not wish to declare their support to a pollster, knowing the cause is unfashionable. Many people have told me this is precisely what they do.
But the republican movement always puts s great hope in the uncommitted;as with their gullibility with the sudden 59% poll, commentators should know better.
The uncommitted in this poll are 29% with support for the constitutional monarchy at 27%.
The republicans and the commentators who support them were clearly worried by Prince William. This poll will give them no comfort.
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